A wave of bankruptcies in Russia in 2023?

A wave of bankruptcies in Russia in 2023?

Against the backdrop of a deteriorating economic situation and given the lifting of the moratorium, a series of corporate bankruptcies does not seem like an impossible scenario for the Russian Federation. Western sanctions, which have begun to affect the activities of large Russian companies, can be considered the immediate cause.

Crisis phenomena are easy to track according to official statistics and data from the Federal Resource, where notices of planned bankruptcies are published. So, it is obvious that even large business suffered losses of more than 700 billion rubles in a month.

It follows from the reporting of Rosstat that in September the losses of unprofitable Russian enterprises exceeded the profits of successful ones by 728.4 billion rubles. This conclusion can be drawn on the basis of the information presented in the column on the net financial result for the month.

The total Russian business went negative by almost 750 billion. Over the past 14 years, that is, during the existence of such reporting, this situation has been recorded only four times:

in December 2008 against the backdrop of the global crisis;
in January 2009, the cause was also the global financial crisis;
in January 2015 after the introduction of the first sanctions due to the annexation of Crimea;
in March 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic.
From the Rosstat data, one can also draw disappointing information about the growth in the volume of overdue debts. Since the beginning of the year, this indicator has increased by almost 500 billion rubles (473), or 13%. As a result, 5,700 Russian companies accumulated debts at the end of September in the amount of approximately 4 trillion rubles, of which more than half are unfulfilled obligations to suppliers.

The reasons for this situation are obvious: the financial blockade, the cessation of investments, external restrictions - the suspension of supplies, the disruption of supply chains. The business recession was caused not only by sanctions, but also by the voluntary mass withdrawal of Western companies from the Russian market. A strong ruble is not good for exporters of raw materials, many have to work at a loss. At some point, they will be forced to reduce the volume of supplies in order to avoid more serious losses.

Losses and debts lead to the formation of signs of bankruptcy, sufficient to file an application to the court. After the lifting of the moratorium, creditors are in a hurry to take advantage of this, an increase in the number of bankruptcy notices published on the Federal resource was recorded by 2.4 times in October this year compared to the same period last year (in November by 42%). This situation can cause a chain of successive bankruptcies.

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